Capital in Transition

In episode six of Capital in Transition, Harry Benham and Mark Campanale look back across the series and trace the thread running through every conversation: capital, and where it is flowing.
Two divides are reshaping the energy landscape: within oil and gas, listed majors have become capital-return businesses, prioritising dividends and share buybacks, as their reserve lives shrink. National oil companies, by contrast, now account for around 60% of fossil fuel investment and some 55% of production. And beyond oil and gas, the manufactured energy economy of solar, batteries, EVs and grids now attracts $2.2 trillion in investment each year. That’s twice the amount flowing into fossil fuels, yet listed oil and gas companies barely feature in this new system.
They also discuss why shrinking reserve lives matter to bondholders, what the latest Statistical Review of World Energy reveals about renewables and demand growth, and whether energy could follow mobile telephony towards deflation and abundance.
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Why do investors who clearly understand climate risk so often struggle to act on it?
In Episode 5 of Capital in Transition, Harry Benham is joined by Carbon Tracker's Amy Owens to find out. Drawing on her report Ambition Under Pressure, Amy examines NBIM – manager of Norway's $2 trillion sovereign wealth fund and one of the world's most sophisticated investors – and finds a striking gap between what its climate analysis reveals and how it actually invests.
She calls it "strategic hesitation": not denial, but the drag of mandates, benchmarks and governance built for an older energy system. A sharp look at why capital moves slowly – and why that delay is becoming a risk in itself.
Linked report: https://carbontracker.org/reports/ambition-under-pressure-analytical-leadership-vs-strategic-hesitation/
Inquiries: capitalintransition@carbontracker.org

If energy is becoming a manufactured system, then who builds that system matters. In Episode 4 of Capital in Transition, Harry Benham and Mark Campanale are joined again by Kingsmill Bond of Ember to examine where the ElectroTech build-out is happening and how this is shaping capital flows, industrial power and the future of the global economy.
The conversation explores how China has established a leading position across key clean technology supply chains, from solar manufacturing and batteries to electric vehicles and grid infrastructure, and why that concentration matters for investors and policymakers alike.
Read the related blog here: https://www.electrotech-revolution.com/p/what-is-electrotech-and-what-will

Is the energy transition simply about replacing one fuel source with another, or are we witnessing a deeper restructuring of the global economy?
In Episode 3 of Capital in Transition, Harry Benham and Mark Campanale are joined by Kingsmill Bond of Ember to explore what he calls the “ElectroTech Revolution”, the shift from an energy system based on extracting and burning fuels to one built around manufactured technologies.
The discussion examines how electrification, digitalisation and manufacturing cost curves are transforming energy from a commodity system into a technology system – with major implications for capital allocation, industrial strategy and financial markets.
Link to the full analysis: https://www.electrotech-revolution.com/p/reframing-energy-for-the-age-of-electricity
If you have any questions, please email capitalintransition@carbontracker.org 

One figure has come to dominate discussions about financing the energy transition: $4.5 trillion per year. But what exactly does that figure represent, and does it accurately reflect the scale of the challenge facing capital markets?  
In Episode 2 of Capital in Transition, Mark Campanale and Harry Benham examine how headline transition investment estimates often combine fundamentally different categories of spending, from consumer EV purchases and grid infrastructure to early-stage technologies and long-duration industrial decarbonisation.  
The episode explores what sits behind the headline number and whether it provides an accurate picture of the investment needed to build the next energy system.
Learn more: https://harrybenham.substack.com/ 
If you have any questions, please email capitalintransition@carbontracker.org 

In its November 2025 piece, The Quiet Retreat, Carbon Tracker argues that, despite political calls for more oil and gas financing, many international oil companies are acting as if long-term demand growth is uncertain. After a decade of capital discipline, investment in new oil and gas supply has stabilised well below the 2014-2015 peak, and more cash is being returned to shareholders rather than used to expand production. Episode 1 examines what is driving that behaviour, and what it signals for investment decisions across the energy system.
 
If you have any questions, please email capitalintransition@carbontracker.org